J’son & Partners Consulting presents brief results of the study "Future TV: NextGenTV». The study used J'son & Partners Consulting previous studies, forecasts of the largest consulting and analytical agencies, interviews of the authoritative industry experts presented by major manufacturers of new concept television models.
The mutual influence of television and Internet is constantly growing stronger. NextGenTV devices lead to their integration.
Manufacturers and developers aim to bring the existing interaction models (for example, collective ratings through social networks), transferring them from external devices (PCs, tablets, smartphones) directly on the TV screen. Another important aspect is the transfer of online video services (such as YouTube) to the TV. The third direction is the development of non-video content (mainly games).
The role of non-linear video increasing in terms of content consumption. The number of terminals through which it is possible to watch videos, including television programs (TV, computers, laptops, tablets, smartphones) also grows. Also, there is a division of content sources into three streams: content coming to the user by means of broadcasting, content on the Internet and user-generated content (media storages, DVD and Blu-Ray, content from mobile devices, etc.).
An important change since 2000 has been the growth of internal memory capacities (in 2012 an average media storage takes 1TB), the growth rate of broadband access (Google Fiber project in the United States provides access at speeds of 100 Mbit / s), and the digitalization of television. Further development of these three sources of content will continue.
First, the range of content media devices will expand. If at the end of the last decade, the main source of user-generated content was a PC or a laptop, as well as a video player, in our days there are smartphones with great memory capacity, tablets, DVR, various media players and removable memory card which became more accessible.
The number of Internet-connected devices is growing. Now there are not just laptops, computers and consoles such as TiVo, which were available in the 2000s, but also all the mobile gadgets (smartphones, tablets), operator STBs, OTT-top boxes and media players, and, finally, TV (Smart TV). Besides, there are additional ways to access the Internet. Wi-Fi access and 3G networks become ubiquitous.
Digital TV is also expanding its presence. STB operators are developing recording functions and additional services, HbbTV European initiatives are spreading, the number and quality of television are increasing as well. The number of channels is constantly growing, including broadcasting in HD, there are channels that broadcast in 3D standard. All of this leads to an increase in the time spent watching TV.
In terms of the commercial component of the television business, all of these trends lead to three major changes. The first one is the change in the revenue structure of each component in the chain of content delivery, including the fragmentation of the advertising revenue. The second one concerns the increase in the number of free available content, including high-quality, making it difficult to increase ARPU of the operators. The third one is a constant need to spend money on various technological innovations, including integration with a growing number of related devices (including mobile gadgets integration with TV).
Despite the competition of alternative video terminals, television sets still play a dominant role in the consumption of video content. NextGenTV takes into account all the trends mentioned above. Due to this NextGenTV will take its place among such devices as smartphones, tablets, and PC, and will be the fourth in the series of "smart devices."
General trends in TV development
The main feature of NextGenTV is integration of television with Internet components. The influence of computer and Internet environment is not limited to content, but includes a range of trends.
General trends in TV development are as follows:
• use of computerized menu;
• use of banners, widgets, and other interactive elements of the screen;
• use of advanced navigation;
• use of external content drive (HDD-drive, etc.);
• integration with other devices (smartphones and tablets);
• integration of media and gaming functions.
The combination of these trends makes NextGenTV quite similar to other digital devices: PCs, tablets or smartphones. In accordance with their characteristics (especially, large screen size and higher resolution) NextGenTV will have a special place in the series of smart devices.
Advantages of TV in the future series of smart devices
Large size makes TV the most favorable device to watch videos, including non-linear, which is reflected in the movement of the audience of OTT-services from PC to Smart-TV. NextGenTV, having 4K resolution, will allow to view 3D-content without special glasses, which also fundamentally distinguishes these devices among other "smart screens". Finally, the TV's are not personal devices such as smart phones and tablets, but devices for the whole family. This fact will continue to contribute to the popularity of these devices among advertisers.
User interface and management
Numerous innovations in management principles, embedded in smartphones and tablets, as well as game consoles, will find its application in NextGenTV. However, NextGenTV preserves specific TV features: remote control, and the role of the remote will be paramount. Additional methods of control such as gestures or voice will find limited use in certain functions. The evolution of remotes will be mainly related to the evolution of GUI.
To date, there are two main trends in the development of remote control. The first concerns the emergence of complex control panels that give access to the TV full functionality. The second is related to the maximum simplification of the remote (basic buttons), which implies a more advanced GUI. Due to the importance of both trends, some manufacturers equip the basic TV package with two remotes - complex and simple.
New methods of advertising, important for the promotion of mobile devices, are applied to NextGenTV. Banners, widgets, interactive elements, multiple menus are the new potential platforms for advertising. Traditional TV advertising can be successfully linked to innovative interactive advertising that will strengthen it, which will facilitate further domination of television advertising.
Functions of connected devices
To date, the situation in which television is the final terminal for a large number of devices is typical. In the future, the number of connected devices will grow, which will require the creation of easily integrated devices. Apart from the development of appropriate technologies and specialized protocols, in which different devices are connected to each other, an important role is gained more versatile devices that provide wide functionality. To date, these devices include game consoles, allowing both to play the game and play the discs, as well as to access content from the network. In the future, these devices will be TVs themselves.
Changes in the sphere of content
But the main feature of NextGenTV will be the ability to work with a large number of TV channels. The offer of digital TV channels is constantly growing, in the future the number of available HD-channels will increase as well. TV should provide an easy choice among a wide number of channels, including through recommendations (electronic program guide), and the possibility of delayed viewing (recording programs on internal drive).
The increase in the number of channels will create new terms of competition. Even today, the role of "first buttons" weakens due to other channels. In the future, the main channels will have to make an effort to maintain its dominance and higher advertising revenues. One method of maintaining influence is the European initiative HbbTV. Channels will not only give the user the image of high quality and more unique content, but also access to additional content simultaneously with the transfer - recipe words of the cooking gear, list of top players at a football game, etc.
Equally important task will be to provide access to non-linear content. Channels have to deal with alternative content aggregators, specialized OTT applications. In addition, linear and non-linear video of aggregators will compete with the video, possessed by the user (on an external drive, internal memory, Blu-Ray-ROM, etc.). These trends make content providers compete for consumers, including by the use of a particular TV model, for example, promoting you’re their own applications on the platform of Smart TV. Thus, NextGenTV specific features will change the traditional chain of content delivery to the viewer.
In general, NextGenTV will be devices for the user, rather than a simple means for receiving channels. Customization through the use of various control methods, menus, and multiple sources of content from multiple devices will strengthen the role of the user's choice. This situation will be inevitably different from today, when the TV is used for zapping (easy switching between channels). In the near future, users will choose not between channels, but between linear TV, non-linear video (from a variety of sources - from DVR to OTT), other media (photos, websites, music), as well as applications and games. The significant role of the linear TV will be preserved, but the user's role will increase significantly, which would require the traditional television market players to rethink their strategies in the field of content selection, broadcast programming, branding, advertising sales and other areas.
Contents of the full version of the report "Future TV: NextGenTV" (68 pages)
2. Technological innovation of TV manufacturers
2.1. Transfer to 4K and 8K resolution (Ultra-HD)
2.2. Change of display diagonal and sizes ratio (16:9 and 21:9) of the average TV
3. Evolution of Smart-TV and Hybrid TV HBB (Internet + TV)
3.1. Popularization of Internet content
3.1.1. TV channels applications
3.1.2. Alternative aggregators (Netflix, etc.)
3.1.3. YouTube and UGC
3.2. HBB-TV: TV channels shift to the hybrid model of broadcasting
3.2.1. «Red buttom»
3.2.3. Additional broadcasting information
4. Trends in control and navigation
4.1. GUI evolution: key innovations
4.2. Voice control: possible applications
4.2.1. Control device
4.2.2. Search (by typing)
4.3. Gesture control: possible applications
4.3.1. Use of camera for profiling
4.3.3. Gesture with remote control
5. Changes in content consumption and the user's attention
5.1. Роль дополнительного контента (виджеты и баннеры) в устройствах NextGenTV
5.1.2. Interactive banners
5.1.3. Informational wires
5.2. Media storage of the user as a content source in NextGenTV
5.2.1. Operator’s DVR
5.2.2. External devices (CD, DVD, the user’s hard drive)
5.2.3. Web-video (OTT-Ovet The Top)
5.3. Games and applications as a new type of main content: Development Prospects
6. Evolution of related products and accessories
6.1. The market of remote control and other control devices
6.1.1. Remotes with keyboard
6.1.2. Remotes with touchpad
6.1.3. Remotes with an accelerometer
6.2. Set-top boxes, game consoles, hard drives and external devices for NextGenTV
6.2.1. The arrangement of devices in the room
6.2.2. Multifunctional devices
6.2.3. Embedded solutions
6.3. TV integration into a unified home media system
6.3.1. Concept Second Screen
6.3.2. TV control by the gadget
6.3.3. TV control by means of external devices
Appendix. NextGenTV concepts from the leading manufacturers
• Average cost of the device for the end user
• HD, 3D, 4K
• Smart TV platform
• HbbTV support
• Management principles
This Information Note is Prepared by J’son & Partners Consulting, We strive to provide factual and prognostic data that fully reflect the situation and are available to us before issuing the material. J’son & Partners Consulting reserves the right to revise the data after publication of new official information by the market players.
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