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J’son & Partners Consulting presents main results of the research Linear HD-TV in Russia. Results of 1H2014 & Forecast till 2018.

 

J'son & Partners Consulting methodology includes the following categories:

 

 

Pay TV Subscribersare the users of telecommunication services for broadcast television, where the service provider is operator - giving the opportunity to watch a wide range of non-terrestrial (pay) TV channels (over 30).

 

 

SUBSCRIBERS OF SOCIAL LOW-CHANNEL-COUNT TV – are the users of telecommunication services for broadcast television, where the service provider is a local (domestic) cable operator, providing the ability to view a small number (less than 30) and mostly non-terrestrial TV (free) channels, but not providing the opportunity to watch the multichannel TV. The fee for such free channels is included in the utility bill (if any) and the tariffs are equal to the fee for telecom services (broadcasting of the national Russian TV- and radio programs).

 

 

Free TV subscribersare the users of analog TV broadcasting and communication services - user gets access to the public TV channels without any monthly fees.

 

HD-TV AUDIENCE – are subscribers, which have a technical opportunity to accept the signal and/or are accepting HD channels, provided via Pay TV service.

 

HD-TV audience includes:

 

 

HD-SUBSCRIBERS, BASIC PACKAGES – are subscribers, which have received access to HD channels together with basic package, as a rule, such subscribers didn’t connect them on purpose (they possess or not, special equipment for HD viewing).

 

 

HD-PACKAGES SUBSCRIBERS – are subscribers, which willingly have connected expanded or specific HD package, they have necessary equipment that supports HDTV (TV and/or Digital HDTV consoles).

 

HD-TV SUBSCRIBERS

 

Major share of Russian Pay TV operators are actively developing HD TV.

 

Due to the wide penetration of HD content, it is not the competitive advantage anymore, rather a basic service. According to J’son & Partners Consulting, Pay HDTV channels subscriber base in Russia was over 7.1 mln.HHs in 2013 and will reach 24.5 mln.HHs by the end of 2018.

 

 

In the forecasted estimation the lack of radical changes in basic Pay TV packages is expected.

 

Tricolor TV has the highest number of HD packages subscribers, its share in 1H2014 was 39.6%.

 

 

In the coming future, operators will have to find new ways how to keep and attract subscribers, such as, development of 4K libraries.

 

According to J’son & Partners Consulting estimations the broadcast of Ultra HD TV channels is expected not earlier than 2016-2017 in Russia.

 

PAY TV MARKET: CURRENT STATE AND MARKET FORECAST

 

High level of Pay TV market development is a key factor for expanding audience of linear HD TV in Russia. Russian Pay TV market is one of the largest in the world: at the end of 1H2014 it was 37.1 mln HHs – connected to cable, satellite and IPTV technologies. For comparison, Pay TV subscriber base in USA – is 100 mln HHs, while penetration rate is 84%, in Poland the situation is the same – 11.4 mln HHs; penetration rate is 73%.

 

 

J’son & Partners Consulting’s estimation: the growth of Pay TV subscriber base will continue in Russia, its number will increase till 45.3 mln HHs by 2018, penetration rate of Pay TV service will hit 83%.

 

 

Results of 1H2014 – Pay TV market volume was 31,9 bln RUB. in Russia. The major market share is still cable TV (16.3 bln RUB), second is satellite TV (10.6 bln RUB), next is – IPTV segment (5.0 bln RUB).

 

 

MAIN RESULTS OF THE RESEARCH: LINEAR HD-TV AUDIENCE IN RUSSIA

  • J’son & Partners Consulting data: HDTV channels – operators’ subscriber base was over 7.1 mln HHs in 2013 in Russia, this indicator will reach 25.4 mln HHs by the end of 2018.

 

  • Tricolor TV has the highest number of HD packages subscribers, results of 1H2014 – 3.82 mln HHs – around 39.6% of the market. Rostelecom has around 2.7 mln subscribers. According J’son & Partners Consulting forecast positions of these market players will not change significantly by 2018.

 

  • Sales of HD TV sets were around 9.154 mln pcs at the end of 2013. There won’t be any drastic changes by 2017 and at the end of 2017 sales will reach 9.268 mln HD-TV sets.

 

  • 3.3 mln Smart TV sets have been sold in Russia in 2013. This indicator will hit 7.2 mln pcs by the end of 2017, CAGR 2013–2017 – 22%.

 

  • The increasing popularity of HD TV facilitates the appearance of Russian and foreign content in a good quality – HD, and also the distribution of HD TV sets and DVB-C/C2 STB.

 

  • The expansion of channels by operators will happened due to HD packages and Digital TV channels.

 

  • In fight for subscribers, operators still continue to offer additional services, such as video on demand.

 

Detailed results of the research are presented in the full version of the Report:Atlas of Russian Pay TV market, 1H2014-2018 (185 p).

 

 

Content:

1. Introduction

2. Pay TV Service Classification

2.1. J’son & Partners Consulting methodology for subscriber base calculation (until 2012)

2.2. Arguments to Support J’son & Partners Consulting methodology change

2.3. J’son & Partners Consulting methodology for subscriber base calculation (from 2012)

3. Russian Pay TV Market

3.1. Industry Quantitative Indicators 1H2014: Subscriber Base, Market Structure by Technologies, Number of Channels, Federal Districts

3.2. Description of major Pay TV operators

3.3. Profiles of major Pay TV operators, 1H2014

3.3.1. Profiles of major cable TV operators, 1H2014

3.3.2. Profiles of major Satellite TV operators, 1H2014

3.3.3. Profiles of major IPTV operators, 1H2014

3.3.4. Profiles of major OTT operators, 1H2014

3.4. Overview of regional transactions: Key M&A transactions, 1H2014

4. STB Terminals

4.1. Major STB terminal manufacturers

4.2. STB Market: current values and forecast

5. Macroeconomic Indicators of Federal Districts: Population (Urban / Rural),  Unemployment Rate, Income per Capita

5.1. Central Federal District (CFD)

5.2. Northwestern Federal District (NWFD)

5.3. Volga Federal District (VFD)

5.4. South Federal District (SFD)

5.5. North Caucasian Federal District (NCFD)

5.6. Ural Federal District (UFD)

5.7. Siberian Federal District (SFD)

5.8. Far Eastern Federal District (FEFD)

6. Pay TV Markets of Federal Districts, 1H2014: Subscriber Base, Penetration, Revenue, ARPU, Market Structure by Operators and Technologies

6.1. Central Federal District (CFD)

6.2. Northwestern Federal District (NWFD)

6.3. Volga Federal District (VFD)

6.4. South Federal District (SFD)

6.5. North Caucasian Federal District (NCFD)

6.6. Ural Federal District (UFD)

6.7. Siberian Federal District (SFD)

6.8. Far Eastern Federal District (FEFD)

7. Local Pay TV Markets, 2014: Subscriber Base, Penetration, Revenue, ARPU, Market Structure by Operators and Technologies

7.1. Moscow

7.2. St. Petersburg

7.3. Nizhny Novgorod

7.4. Samara

7.5. Kazan

7.6. Ufa

7.7. Perm

7.8. Saratov

7.9. Tolyatti

7.10. Voronezh

7.11. Rostov-on-Don

7.12. Volgograd

7.13. Krasnodar

7.14. Ekaterinburg

7.15. Chelyabinsk

7.16. Novosibirsk

7.17. Omsk

7.18. Krasnoyarsk

8. TV Content Production and Distribution

8.1. Aggregators and Distributors of TV Content for Pay TV

8.2. Audience’s content preferences

9. Service Content

9.1. Quantitative characteristics

9.2. Qualitative characteristics

10. Operators' tariff policy and offered TV channels

10.1. Operators’ Pay TV service tariffs

10.2. List of Non-Terrestrial TV channels present in Russia

10.3. Non-Terrestrial TV coverage

10.4. Channel genres popularity rating

11. HDTV subscribers base estimation by operators and TV channels

11.1. Technical audience of HD TV in Russia

12. Russian TV-Set Market, 2012-2018

13. Pay TV Market Trends and forecast by Technologies, 2012-2018: Market Structure and Volume in pcs. and USD, Penetration, ARPU

14. Video on Demand (VOD/PPV) Market in Pay TV, 2012-2018

15. Conclusion

16. List of companies mentioned in the report

 

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1. Shares of Federal Districts in the Pay TV Market in terms of the subscriber base, 2013, 1H2014

Figure 2. Reorganization of Rostelecom in April 2011

Figure 3. STB Market Dynamics, thsd. pcs., 2012-2018

Figure 4. STB Market Dynamics, RUB bln., 2012-2018

Figure 5. STB Sales Structure, pcs., 2013

Figure 6. Population rates in Federal Districts, mln., 2013

Figure 7. Urban and rural Population rates in Federal Districts, mln., 2013

Figure 8. Unemployment rate in Federal Districts, 2013

Figure 9. Income per capita in Federal Districts, 2013

Figure 10. Pay TV subscriber base and penetration rate in the Central Federal District by technologies, 2013

Figure 11. CFD’s Pay TV market structure by technologies, 1H2014

Figure 12. CFD’s Pay TV market structure by operators,  2013, 1H2014

Figure 13. Pay TV subscriber base and penetration rate in the Northwestern Federal District by technologies, 2013

Figure 14. NWFD’s Pay TV market structure by technologies,  2013, 1H2014

Figure 15. NWFD’s Pay TV market structure by operators,  2013, 1H2014

Figure 16. Pay TV subscriber base and penetration rate in the Southern Federal District by technologies, 2013

Figure 17. SFD’s Pay TV market structure by technologies,  2013, 1H2014

Figure 18. SFD’s Pay TV market structure by operators,  2013, 1H2014

Figure 19. Pay TV subscriber base and penetration rate in the North Caucasian Federal District by technologies, 2013

Figure 20. NCFD’s Pay TV market structure by technologies,  2013, 1H2014

Figure 21. NCFD’s Pay TV market structure by operators,  2013, 1H2014

Figure 22. Pay TV subscriber base and penetration rate in the Volga Federal District by technologies, 2013

Figure 23. VFD’s Pay TV market structure by technologies,  2013, 1H2014

Figure 24. VFD’s Pay TV market structure by operators,  2013, 1H2014

Figure 25. Pay TV subscriber base and penetration rate in the Ural Federal District by technologies, 2013

Figure 26. UFD’s Pay TV market structure by technologies,  2013, 1H2014

Figure 27. UFD’s Pay TV market structure by operators, 2011, 2012

Figure 28. Pay TV subscriber base and penetration rate in the Siberian Federal District by technologies, 2013

Figure 29. SiFD’s Pay TV market structure by technologies,  2013, 1H2014

Figure 30. SiFD’s Pay TV market structure by operators,  2013, 1H2014

Figure 31. Pay TV subscriber base and penetration rate in the Far Eastern Federal District by technologies, 2013

Figure 32. FEFD’s Pay TV Market structure by technologies,  2013, 1H2014

Figure 33. FEFD’s Pay TV Market structure by operators,  2013, 1H2014

Figure 34. Pay TV subscriber base and penetration rate in Moscow, 1H2014

Figure 35. Moscow’s Pay TV market structure by technologies, 1H2014

Figure 36. Moscow’s Pay TV market structure by operators, 1H2014

Figure 37. Pay TV subscriber base and penetration rate in St. Petersburg, 1H2014

Figure 38. St. Petersburg’s Pay TV market structure by operators, 1H2014

Figure 39. St. Petersburg’s Pay TV market structure by technologies, 1H2014

Figure 40. Pay TV subscriber base and penetration rate in Nizhny Novgorod, 1H2014

Figure 41. Nizhny Novgorod’s Pay TV market structure by operators, 1H2014

Figure 42. Nizhny Novgorod’s Pay TV market structure by technologies, 1H2014

Figure 43. Pay TV subscriber base and penetration rate in Samara, 1H2014

Figure 44. Samara’s Pay TV market structure by operators, 1H2014

Figure 45. Samara’s Pay TV market structure by technologies, 1H2014

Figure 46. Pay TV subscriber base and penetration rate in Kazan, 1H2014

Figure 47. Kazan’s Pay TV market structure by operators, 1H2014

Figure 48. Kazan’s Pay TV market structure by technologies, 1H2014

Figure 49. Pay TV subscriber base and penetration rate in Ufa, 1H2014

Figure 50. Ufa’s Pay TV market structure by operators, 1H2014

Figure 51. Ufa’s Pay TV market structure by technologies, 1H2014

Figure 52. Pay TV subscriber base and penetration rate in Perm, 1H2014

Figure 53. Perm’s Pay TV market structure by operators, 1H2014

Figure 54. Perm’s Pay TV market structure by technologies, 1H2014

Figure 55. Pay TV subscriber base and penetration rate in Saratov, 1H2014

Figure 56. Saratov’s Pay TV market structure by operators, 1H2014

Figure 57. Saratov’s Pay TV market structure by technologies, 1H2014

Figure 58. Pay TV subscriber base and penetration rate in Tolyatti, 1H2014

Figure 59. Tolyatti’s Pay TV market structure by operators, 1H2014

Figure 60. Tolyatti’s Pay TV market structure by technologies, 1H2014

Figure 61. Pay TV subscriber base and penetration rate in Voronezh, 1H2014

Figure 62. Voronezh’s Pay TV market structure by operators, 1H2014

Figure 63. Voronezh’s Pay TV market structure by technologies, 1H2014

Figure 64. Pay TV subscriber base and penetration rate in Rostov-on-Don, 1H2014

Figure 65. Rostov-on-Don’s Pay TV market structure by operators, 1H2014

Figure 66. Rostov-on-Don’s Pay TV market structure by technologies, 1H2014

Figure 67. Pay TV subscriber base and penetration rate in Volgograd, 1H2014

Figure 68. Volgograd’s Pay TV market structure by operators, 1H2014

Figure 69. Volgograd’s Pay TV market structure by technologies, 1H2014

Figure 70. Pay TV subscriber base and penetration rate in Krasnodar, 1H2014

Figure 71. Krasnodar’s Pay TV market structure by operators, 1H2014

Figure 72. Krasnodar’s Pay TV market structure by technologies, 1H2014

Figure 73. Pay TV subscriber base and penetration rate in Ekaterinburg, 1H2014

Figure 74. Ekaterinburg’s Pay TV market structure by operators, 1H2014

Figure 75. Ekaterinburg’s Pay TV market structure by technologies, 1H2014

Figure 76. Pay TV subscriber base and penetration rate in Chelyabinsk, 1H2014

Figure 77. Chelyabinsk’s Pay TV market structure by operators, 1H2014

Figure 78. Chelyabinsk’s Pay TV market structure by technologies, 1H2014

Figure 79. Pay TV subscriber base and penetration rate in Novosibirsk, 1H2014

Figure 80. Novosibirsk’s Pay TV market structure by operators, 1H2014

Figure 81. Novosibirsk’s Pay TV market structure by technologies, 1H2014

Figure 82. Pay TV subscriber base and penetration rate in Omsk, 1H2014

Figure 83. Omsk’s Pay TV market structure by operators, 1H2014

Figure 84. Omsk’s Pay TV market structure by technologies, 1H2014

Figure 85. Pay TV subscriber base and penetration rate in Krasnoyarsk, 1H2014

Figure 86. Krasnoyarsk’s Pay TV market structure by operators, 1H2014

Figure 87. Krasnoyarsk’s Pay TV market structure by technologies, 1H2014

Figure 88. TV content value chain and market players

Figure 89. Non-terrestrial TV audience’s content preferences, 1H2014

Figure 90. Daily average share and rating of terrestrial channels, 2012, 2013, 1H2014

Figure 91. Pay TV Channels distribution in operators’ packages by genres, 1H2014

Figure 92. Structure of non-terrestrial TV channels present in Russia by its localization, 2013

Figure 93. Number of non-terrestrial TV channels present in Russia by access technologies, 2013

Figure 94. Three-Month audience’s reach of non-terrestrial channels, %, 2013 г.

Figure 95. Rating of channel genres popularity among non-terrestrial TV audience, %, Россия, 2013

Figure 96. Technical audience of HD TV in Russia, including cross-crossing of subscribers’ devices gategories, mln. HHs, 2013-2018

Figure 97. TV-Set market dynamics, mln. pcs, 2012-2018

Figure 98. TV-Set market dynamics, RUB bln., 2012-2018

Figure 99. Accumulated Smart TV base, mln. pcs,  2012-2018

Figure 100. Smart TV market volume, mln. pcs, 2012-2018

Figure 101. Smart TV market dynamics, RUB bln., 2012-2018

Figure 102. Pay TV subscriber base and penetration in Russia forecast, 2012-2018

Figure 103. Satellite TV subscriber base and penetration in Russia forecast, 2012-2018

Figure 104. Cable TV subscriber base and penetration in Russia forecast, 2012-2018

Figure 105. IPTV subscriber base and penetration in Russia forecast, 2012-2018

Figure 106. Pay TV market revenue and ARPU in Russia forecast, 2012-2018

Figure 107. Satellite TV market revenue and ARPU in Russia forecast, 2012-2018

Figure 108. Cable TV market revenue and ARPU in Russia forecast, 2012-2018

Figure 109. IPTV TV market revenue and ARPU in Russia forecast, 2012-2018

Figure 110. Pay TV subscriber base structure by technologies, 1H2014, 2018

Figure 111. Pay TV market revenue structure by technologies, 1H2014, 2018

Figure 112. Video on demand market volume, RUB mln., 2011-2013

Figure 113. Video on demand market structure by operators, 1H2014

Figure 114. Video on demand market volume and growth rate, RUB mln., 2013-2018

 

 

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1. Current dynamics of Russian Pay TV subscriber base growth by technologies, mln. HHs, 2012-1H2014

Table 2. Current dynamics of Russian Pay TV subscriber base growth by federal districts, mln. HHs, 2013-1H2014

Table 3. Russian Pay TV subscriber base structure depending on the service provision technology by major providers, mln. HHs, 1H2014

Table 4. Shareholders and Russian Pay TV brands owned by them, 1H2014

Table 5. Major players in the Russian Pay TV market, 2012-1H2014

Table 6. Key M&A transactions in the Russian Pay TV market in 2011-1H2014

Table 7. Major producers of STB subscriber receiving devices in Russia

Table 8. CFD’s macroeconomic indicators

Table 9. NWFD’s macroeconomic indicators

Table 10. VFD’s macroeconomic indicators

Table 11. SFD’s macroeconomic indicators

Table 12. NCFD’s macroeconomic indicators

Table 13. UFD’s macroeconomic indicators

Table 14. SiFD’s macroeconomic indicators

Table 15. FEFD’s macroeconomic indicators

Table 16. CFD’s Pay TV market profile, 1H2014

Table 17. NWFD’s Pay TV market profile, 1H2014

Table 18. SFD’s Pay TV market profile, 1H2014

Table 19. NCFD’s Pay TV market profile, 1H2014

Table 20. VFD’s Pay TV market profile, 1H2014

Table 21. UFD’s Pay TV market profile, 1H2014

Table 22. SiFD’s Pay TV market profile, 1H2014

Table 23. FEFD’s Pay TV market profile, 1H2014

Table 24. Moscow’s Pay TV market profile, 2013-1H2014

Table 25. St. Petersburg’s Pay TV market profile, 2013-1H2014

Table 26. Nizhny Novgorod’s Pay TV market profile, 2013-1H2014

Table 27. Samara’s Pay TV market profile, 2013-1H2014

Table 28. Kazan’s Pay TV market profile, 2013-1H2014

Table 29. Ufa’s Pay TV market profile, 2013-1H2014

Table 30. Perm’s Pay TV market profile, 2013-1H2014

Table 31. Saratov’s Pay TV market profile, 2013-1H2014

Table 32. Tolyatti’s Pay TV market profile, 2013-1H2014

Table 33. Voronezh’s Pay TV market profile, 2013-1H2014

Table 34. Rostov-on-Don’s Pay TV market profile, 2013-1H2014

Table 35. Volgograd’s Pay TV market profile, 2013-1H2014

Table 36. Krasnodar’s Pay TV market profile, 2013-1H2014

Table 37. Ekaterinburg’s Pay TV market profile, 2013-1H2014

Table 38. Chelyabinsk’s Pay TV market profile, 2013-1H2014

Table 39. Novosibirsk’s Pay TV market profile, 2013-1H2014

Table 40. Omsk’s Pay TV market profile, 2013-1H2014

Table 41. Krasnoyarsk’s Pay TV market profile, 2013-1H2014

Table 42. Video content production market players

Table 43. Aggregators (Distributors) of television content for Pay TV

Table 44. Number of TV channels in basic and extended basic packages of major pay TV operators, 1H2014

Table 45. TV Channels first aired in Russia in 2011-1H2014

Table 46. Subscriber fee by operators, per month

Table 47. List of Non-Terrestrial channels aired in Russia, 1H2014

Table 48. List of Russian HDTV Channel producers, June 2014

Table 49. Number of HDTV channels in packages of major operators

Table 50. Subscriber fee by paid HDTV channels’ operators, 1H2014

 

Detailed results of the research are presented in the full version of the Report: HD-TV TECHNICAL AUDIENCE IN RUSSIA, RESULTS OF 1H2014

 

 

1. Methodology

2. Sales and installed base of HD TV in Russia

3. Subscriber base of Digital TV in Russia

3.1. Digital packages – by number of subscribers

3.2. HD packages - by number of subscribers

4. Sales and installed base of TV sets with implemented Set Top Box - DVB-C/C2

5. Sales and installed base of DVB-C/C2 STB

6. Technical audience of HD TV in Russia

6.1. By all categories of appropriate devices

6.2. With regard of subscribers’ devices categories intersection

7. Conclusion

8. List of companies mentioned in the Report

 

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1. Resolutions of Digital TV

Figure 2. HD TV sets sales, thousand pcs., 2013-2017F

Figure 3. HD TV sets sales by categories of appropriate devices, thousand pcs., 2013-2017F

Figure 4. Installed base of HD TV sets and penetration rate, thousand pcs., 2013-2017F

Figure 5. Installed base of HD TV sets by categories of appropriate devices, thousand pcs., 2013-2017F

Figure 6. Subscriber base and penetration of digital packages subscribers, mln.HHs, 2013-2017F

Figure 7. Subscriber base of digital packages by technologies, mln.HHs, 2013-2017F

Figure 8. Subscriber structure of digital packages – satellite TV by operators, 2013

Figure 9. Subscriber structure of digital packages – cable TV by operators, 2013

Figure 10. Subscriber structure of digital packages – IPTV by operators, 2013

Figure 11. The number of HD packages subscribers – Pay TV operators and penetration, mln.HHs, 2013-2017F

Figure 12. The correlation of number of subscribers HD packages (Pay TV operators) and nunber of subscribers (Digital Pay TV), mln.HHs, 2013-2017F

Figure 13. Subscriber base structure – HD packages by operators 2013-2017F

Figure 14. TV sets sales with implemented DVB-C/C2 STB, thousand pcs., 2013-2017F

Figure 15. Installed base of TV sets with implemented DVB-C/C2 STB and penetration rate, thousand pcs., 2013-2017F

Figure 16. Volume of sales - DVB-C/C2 STB in Russia, thousand pcs., 2013A-2017F

Figure 17. Installed base of DVB-C/C2 STB in Russia, thousand pcs. 2013A-2017F

Figure 18. HD TV technical audience in Russia, mln.HHs, 2013-2017F

Figure 19. HD TV technical audience in Russia with regard to subscribers’ devices categories intersection, mln.HHs, 2013-2017F

 

This Information Note is Prepared by J’son & Partners Consulting, We strive to provide factual and prognostic data that fully reflect the situation and are available to us before issuing the material. J’son & Partners Consulting reserves the right to revise the data after publication of new official information by the market players.