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Satellite technologies on the M2M / IoT market

July 2017

Analytical Report (full version)

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Analytical Report (full version)

Satellite technologies on the M2M / IoT market
Satellite technologies on the M2M / IoT market
July 2017

Satellite technologies on the M2M / IoT market

July 2017

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J'son & Partners Consulting presents main results of the research "Satellite technologies on the M2M / IoT market". The study presents an analysis of the common M2M / IoT market directions where satellite technologies may be in demand, analysis of the information on new low-orbit satellite projects and calculations of the reference hypothetical multisatellite low-orbit system "Aurora", originally designed for solving the M2M / IoT problems.

 

The current state and prospects of the satellite segment in the M2M / IoT market

 

Transition to the "digital economy" is impossible without the development of new information and communication technologies. Often these technologies are simplified to the technologies of high-speed Internet access and elimination of "digital inequality". However, in recent years, special attention has been paid to M2M / IoT technologies. These technologies are fundamentally differs from high-speed access technologies by requirement of low-speed channels for the transmission of small information packets and their subsequent processing for a various monitoring and control services.

 

M2M / IoT technologies provide an information environment for monitoring and management of any processes that are associated with any production activity and human life in a broad sense. Ultimately, this qualitatively new environment alters not only the world economic structure, but also the existence of man. The physical basis of M2M / IoT networks is mainly ground technologies. However, specialized satellite technologies are in some cases the only possible solution to the M2M / IoT tasks or provide redundancy in solving particularly critical and/or special M2M / IoT tasks.

 

Source: Magazine “ТСС”, №2 2017

 

According to analysts' forecasts, the volume of the global M2M / IoT market is estimated at tens of billions of connections and hundreds of billions of dollars. And although satellite technologies occupy a relatively small share (about 0.1%), in monetary terms, this corresponds to an annual volume of $ 2.5-2.8 billion in the period 2025-2028. For comparison, the world market of satellite remote sensing services in 2015 was $ 1.8 billion with a growth forecast of up to 10% per year.

 

In general, J'son & Partners Consulting analysts are sure that satellite technologies are relevant for many developing and promising areas of M2M / IoT, which require monitoring and managing dynamic processes and devices in conditions of inaccessibility or insufficient reliability of cellular networks. At the same time, existing satellite systems in the future will not be able to compete in price with the ground-based M2M / IoT technologies. The J'son & Partners Consulting study assesses the conditions for their competitiveness and feasibility using the example of the hypothetical multisatellite low-orbit system "Aurora" with the objective M2M / IoT function.

 

 

 

Detailed research results are presented in the full version of the report:

          “Satellite technologies on the M2M / IoT  market”

 

Content

1. Introduction

2. The volume and dynamics of the common M2M / IoT market development

3. The volume and dynamics of the satellite M2M / IoT market development

4. The main players in the modern satellite M2M / IoT market

4.1. Inmarsat

4.2. Thuraya

4.3. Echostar XXI (TerreStar 2)

4.4. Ligodo Networks (Sky Terra-1)

4.5. Iridium

4.6. Globalstar

4.7. Aprize Satellite (EVxx)

4.8. Orbcomm

4.9. Gonec

5. Profitability and competitiveness of satellite and terrestrial M2M / IoT networks

6. Distribution of revenue in the market of M2M / IoT satellite systems

7. Profitability of M2M / IoT segments in the satellite market

8. Competing projects on the M2M / IoT satellite market

9. Urgency of creating the target M2M / IoT satellite system

10. Target functions of the "Aurora" system

11. The required number of satellites for global services

11.1. Working areas of the system

12. Energy of the hypothetical M2M / IoT system radio links

12.1. Off-Line mode

12.2. On-Line mode

12.3. Energy of subscriber radio lines of KA-Zemlya

12.4. Feeder radio link energy

13. Space grouping control and monitoring

14. Network monitoring and control, gateway stations

15. Price indicators of low-orbit M2M / IoT system

15.1. Satellite cost

15.2. Total price of the project

16. Provision of services

17. Conclusion

 

List of figures

Fig.1. Forecasts of the total M2M / IoT market volume

Fig.2. Forecast of the M2M / IoT market satellite segment development dynamics

Fig.3. Distribution of profitability in the satellite segment of the M2M / IoT market

Fig.4. ARPU forecast of one connection ($ per month) in the commercial segment

Fig.5. Segmentation of the M2M / IoT satellite market and segment profitability

Fig.6. ARPU for the M2M / IoT satellite market segments in 2017-2023

Fig.7. Structure of the AZN-B signal collection in the Iridium Next system

Fig.8. Illustration of the orbital constellation of the satellite constellation

Fig.9. Structure of the possible composition of the satellite payload

Fig.10. The required number of satellites

Fig.11. Illustration of the system working zones

Fig.12. Illustration of the step-by-step build-up of the space constellation using three frequent letters

Fig.13. Dependence of the viewing angle from the satellite on the given working angle of vengeance on the Earth

Fig.14. C/N ratio to "Earth-to-Cosmos" using Lora technology

Fig.15. Increase of the absolute cost of the satellite in the presence of interstitial lines

Fig.16. Cost of the satellite in low orbit

Fig.17. Coefficient of satellites serial production

Fig.18. CAPEX systems and main components

Fig.19. Illustration of the interaction of the satellite operator and terrestrial operators of national and regional networks

 

List of tables

Table 1. MSS systems providing M2M / IoT services (May 2017)

Table 2. ARPU and the number of connections for satellite and terrestrial technologies

Table 3. An estimation of profitableness of system depending on objective function

Table 4. Projects of M2M / IoT satellite systems

Table 5. Estimation of the power of the subscriber radio link for the real-time mode

Table 6. Risk factors depending on the novelty of the project and the qualification of the team

Table 7. Costs of satellite withdrawal (forecast by 2020)

 

 

 

The newsletter was prepared by J'son & Partners Consulting. We make every effort to provide factual and forecast data that fully reflect the situation and are available at the time of the release of the material. J'son & Partners Consulting reserves the right to revise the data after the publication of new official information by individual players.

 

 

J'son & Partners Consulting presents main results of the research "Satellite technologies on the M2M / IoT market". The study presents an analysis of the common M2M / IoT market directions where satellite technologies may be in demand, analysis of the information on new low-orbit satellite projects and calculations of the reference hypothetical multisatellite low-orbit system "Aurora", originally designed for solving the M2M / IoT problems.