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The market of satellite communications and broadcasting. HTS (GEO/MEO/LEO/HEO-HTS) satellite broadband technology.

November 2016

Analytical Report (full version)

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Analytical Report (full version)

The market of satellite communications and broadcasting. HTS (GEO/MEO/LEO/HEO-HTS) satellite broadband technology.
The market of satellite communications and broadcasting. HTS (GEO/MEO/LEO/HEO-HTS) satellite broadband technology.
November 2016

The market of satellite communications and broadcasting. HTS (GEO/MEO/LEO/HEO-HTS) satellite broadband technology.

November 2016

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J'son & Partners Consulting presents main results of the study "Evolution of the market of satellite communications and broadcasting. Multibeam satellite systems with ultra-high bandwidth. Satellite broadband access based on HTS technology".

 

 

Evolution of the market

 

Communication services with use of satellites, including access to the Internet, are considered expensive and used most often in sparsely populated and remote areas where with no telecommunication infrastructure, or to support critical channels of communication and data transmission in corporate (B2B) segment.

 

However, about 10 years ago, a new technology based on the principle of multibeam geostationary satellites in the Ku and Ka frequency ranges, which have substantially changed the situation on the market of satellite communications and broadcasting. Such satellites are called HTS (High Throughput Satellite, high). As of 2016, the capacity of all HTS satellites already exceeds the capacity of all traditional geostationary communication satellites in all frequency bands (L/S/C/X/Ku/Ka).

 

Source: TelAstra Inc.

 

Moreover, available, speed channels for the mass users and the cost of information transmission is better than when using radio-relay lines, and are commensurate with the fiber optic networks, and in some cases they have a more attractive technical and economic significance. As a result, many countries have taken the HTS technology as the basis of the national projects for elimination of the digital inequality for the "last" 5-7% of households. A number of such programs, including those in Russia, as well as the overall condition of this segment of the satellite communications market and its features, associated with the HTS technology, are analyzed in detail as for2016.

 

According to J'son & Partners Consulting, today we can say that in the market for satellite communications and broadcasting there has been established a new segment based on use of HTS multibeam geostationary satellites in the Ku - and Ka-bands.

        

 

Technology trends in the market of satellite communication and broadcasting

 

The development of technologies for satellite communications is ongoing. There are new projects of HTS satellitesand systems on their basis. According to analysts of J'son & Partners Consulting, in the next one or two years the total capacity of one target HTS satellite will reach 500-1000 Gbps. The cost of transfer of one unit of information will also significantly decrease. In this regard, there are new promising projects in the world now; the analysis of these projects allowed analysts from J'son & Partners Consulting to predict the development of this market segment until 2023-2025. Special attention was paid to a new direction – multi-satellite systems using non-geostationary satellites in low and medium orbits (MEO/LEO-HTS), the authors also analyzed the indicators of technical and economic efficiency of such systems (including the Russian) stated by investors. It should be noted that the total capacity of the designed systems MEO/LEO-HTS is already estimated in tens and even hundreds of Tbps, and their technical and economic indicators are better than the modern systems not only those based on the HTS geostationary satellites, but also fiber optics, by many parameters including the information delay.

 

 

The market forecasts

 

The HTS segment of the market of satellite communication and broadcasting shows a rapid increase in network capacity and volume of sales in money terms. New possibilities for the HTS technology can be used in all countries and regions, with the largest markets concentrated in the USA and Canada. The main demand is associated with services of satellite broadband access (BBA). Network-based HTS started its development from commerce to government objectives: provision of broadband for the implementation of government programs, providing resources for military and budgetary organizations. Public projects are currently the main driver of this service development in the world.

 

However, along with the optimistic forecasts, J'son & Partners Consulting analysts draw attention to the problems that are observed today both in the field of creation of systems based on HTS and in new designed MEO/LEO-HTS systems.

 

In particular, there is a surplus capacity of HTS satellites, which is now approximately 75%, but every year it falls by approximately 5%, i.e. by 2023, the unused resource of HTS satellites will be reduced to about 50%. Utilization of the resource will occur due to the greater diversity of services and customer services on movable means, primarily for use at sea and in the air.

 

 

Detailed results of the research are presented in the full version of the report:

The market of satellite communications and broadcasting. HTS (GEO/MEO/LEO/HEO-HTS) satellite broadband technology.

 

Table of contents

 

1. Introduction

2. Research methodology

3. Sources of information

4. Classification and terminology

4.1. Classification by type of radio

5. Features of segmentation and players in the FSS HTS market

6. Key players in the HTS market

6.1. Viasat Inc.

6.2. Thaicom Inc.

7. The market and HTS systems

7.1. Forecasts for the global HTS market to 2022

8. Features of HTS services

9. Supply and demand for resources of HTS networks

9.1. Features of demand for resources of HTS satellites by region

10. HTS technologies and their impact on the consumption of satellite capacity

11. Trends of HTS / FSS systems and their technical-economic indicators

11.1. HTS systems based on geostationary satellites

12. MEO-HTS systems

12.1. O3b system

12.2. Laser Light system

13. New investment projects based on LEO -HTS

13.1. COMMStellation

13.2. OneWeb

13.3. SpaceX

13.4. LeoSat

13.5. Main problem of LEO-HTS

14. Systems based on HTS satellites for mobile assets

15. Examples of investment projects

15.1. Positive examples

15.1.1.         Satellite broadband in the United States

15.2. Unsuccessful investment projects

15.2.1.         The TooWay network on the basis of the European Ka-Sat satellite

16. Tariff plans and selling of resources of HTS networks

16.1. Comparison of tariff plans

16.2. HTS online sales

16.3. Resource allocation using Wi-Fi

17. Competitiveness of services on the basis of HTS satellites

17.1. The cost per unit of information transfer in HTS systems

17.2. Comparison of the cost per unit of information transfer using traditional satellites and HTS satellites

17.3. Comparison of HTS systems with terrestrial technologies

18. State programs of development of broadband and satellite technology

18.1. Broadband development programs in America

18.2. Broadband development programs in Russia

19. Capacity of the satellite broadband access in Russia to 2013-2022.

20. LEO/MEO-HTS projects in Russia

21. Existing and planned HTS satellites

22. Price indicators of HTS systems and satellites

23. Projects of systems such as LEO/MEO-HTS as of October 2016

24. Capacity, cost and terms of implementation of systems such as LEO/MEO-HTS

25. Detailed technical parameters of the OneWeb system and its work areas

26. Detailed technical parameters of the SpaceX system (first stage)

27. Detailed technical parameters of the Telesat LEO Constellation system

28. Detailed technical parameters of the TSN (Theia) system

29. Latin abbreviations

30. Russian abbreviations

 

 

List of figures

Fig. 1. Chain of segmentation in the FSS / HTS market

Fig. 2. The main operators of HTS based networks (according to NSR, 2011, 2014).

Fig. 3. Revenue of the company Viasat in 2008-2015, million dollars.

Fig. 4. Income structure of the company Viasat in 2008-2015.

Fig. 5. Income distribution of the company Viasat, by regions of the world in 2013.

Fig. 6. Revenue of the company iPSTAR, 2006-2014 million dollars.

Fig. 7. Market size in the number of equivalent trunks, 2006-2012

Fig. 8. Forecast of increasing the capacity of the FSS / HTS space segment in the period 2012-2022, GB/s

Fig. 9. Evaluation of capacity of traditional communications and broadcasting satellites and HTS satellites, GB/s

Fig. 10. Forecast of use of HTS networks in the period up to 2022, share (%) of the proposed capacity

Fig. 11. Distribution by tasks of VSAT stations in satellite broadband networks in the world in 2013 and a forecast for 2023, proportion (%) of the total number of stations

Fig. 12. Supply and demand for resources of HTS satellites in 2013 and a forecast up to 2023, GB/s

Fig. 13. Assessment of regional demand for resources of HTS satellites in 2015. (%)

Fig. 14. Forecast of demand for resources of HTS networks in the period 2012-2022. GB/s

Fig. 15. Forecast of use of HTS satellites resource, 2014-2023.

Fig. 16. Estimate of the number of HTS satellites in 2004-2016.

Fig. 17. Illustration of the space segment of the O3b MEO-HTS and CASCADE systems

Fig. 18. Illustration of the Laser Light satellite system and the HOLO network

Fig. 19. Illustration of tools that work in motion with use of VSAT

Fig. 20. Assessment of the required resource of traditional and HTS satellites in the FSS commercial market for communications on moving vehicles

Fig. 21. Forecast of capacity escalating in the networks of traditional satellites (Ku) and HTS systems to provide broadband access for marine vessels

Fig. 22. Assessment of the development of the market for services of satellite communications on marine vessels, million dollars

Fig. 23. Forecast of demand for HTS Ka band for providing broadband communications to mobile ground vehicles, Gbps.

Fig. 24. Forecast of increase in the subscriber base of satellite broadband access in Europe, 2008-2020, million households

Fig. 25. Increasing the subscriber base in the network tooWay in 2012-2015, thousand subscribers

Fig. 26. Distribution of the subscriber base (%) of the network tooWay (Ka-Sat) by countries at the end of 2015

Fig. 27. Illustration of organization of sales network for satellite broadband services

Fig. 28. Prices for 1 Gbps, normalized CAPEX (mln. dollars for 1 Gbps, satellite, launch, insurance, etc.)

Fig. 29. Comparison of satellite broadband and FTTH technology

Fig. 30. Costs of providing Internet access for fixed terrestrial technologies, depending on the density of households

Fig. 31. Illustration of prices for implementation of the NBP (USA) using ground-based technologies

Fig. 32. Relationship of the EU territory and % of the population

Fig. 33. One-time costs (US$) to connect to one unserved household depending on the type of technology (including subscriber equipment) for regions of the United States

Fig. 34. Required monthly subsidies per household

Fig. 35. Increasing the capacity of the Russian group of HTS Ka, GB/s

Fig. 36. Distribution of the Russian satellites such as HTS Ka in the GEO orbit and their resource, Gbit/s (fact for 2013-2017, plans for 2013).

Fig. 37. View of the working area of the OneWeb satellite on the earth's surface

Fig. 38. Example of the working area of three satellites around latitude 30 deg.

Fig. 39. Example of the working area of three satellites around latitude 50 deg.

Fig. 40. Example of the working area of satellites in three adjacent orbital planes

 

 

List of tables

Table. 1. Required velocities in channels for modern Internet services

Table. 2. Estimation of the number of households that potentially need satellite broadband (including state programs, U.S., EU, Australia and Russia)

Table. 3. Criteria for evaluating communication systems

Table. 4. Price parameters of networks based on HTS and generalized indicators

Table. 5. Price parameters of networks based on HTS and generalized indicators

Table. 6. Projects of medium-orbiting systems such as MEO-HTS (2016)

Table. 7. Parameters of the O3b and CASCADE systems

Table. 8. Projects of HEO HTS systems

Table. 9. Parameters of high-speed low-orbit HTS systems of the second stage

Table. 10. Evaluation of equivalent costs of creating LEO-HTS and HTS systems

Table. 11. Projects of LEO-HTS systems (November 2016)

Table. 12. Price for 1 GB in the tooWay network by European countries (June 2014).

Table. 13. The average cost of 1 Gbps per month in the tariff plans (2012).

Table. 14. Comparison of tariff plans of satellite broadband in the UK

Table. 15. The minimum cost of frequency resource of HTS satellites

Table. 16. The minimum cost of 1 Mbps of broadband access network based on HTS satellites

Table. 17. The minimum cost of 1 Mbps of broadband access network based on HTS satellites

Table. 18. Comparison of prices for 1 Mbps for HTS satellite broadband and terrestrial broadband technologies in the tariff plans of operators (beginning of 2013).

Table. 19. Brief information about state programmes for the development of broadband access (US, Europe, Russia)

Table. 20. The number of households, which considered appropriate to use satellite broadband

Table. 21. LEO/MEO-HTS projects of Russian companies and organizations

Table. 22. Principal operating and planned HTS satellites to create systems broadband

Table. 23. Price indicators of HTS systems and satellites

Table. 24. LEO/MEO-HTS projects

Table. 25. LEO-HTS systems (general data)

Table. 26. Performance characteristics of the OneWeb designed system, its space and earth segments

Table. 27. Performance characteristics of the SpaceX designed system, its space and ground segments (November 2016)

Table. 28. Performance characteristics of the Telesat LEO Constellation designed system, its space and ground segments (November 2016)

Table. 29. Performance characteristics of the TSN (Theia), its space and ground segments (November 2016)

 

 

The newsletter was prepared by J'son & Partners Consulting. We make every effort to provide factual and forecast data that fully reflect the situation and are available at the time of the release of the material. J'son & Partners Consulting reserves the right to revise the data after the publication of new official information by individual players.

 

 

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J'son & Partners Consulting presents main results of the study "Evolution of the market of satellite communications and broadcasting. Multibeam satellite systems with ultra-high bandwidth. Satellite broadband access based on HTS technology".