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The world market for self-driving cars in 2020 - 2035

August 2017

Analytical Report (full version)

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Analytical Report (full version)

The world market for self-driving cars in 2020 - 2035
The world market for self-driving cars in 2020 - 2035
August 2017

The world market for self-driving cars in 2020 - 2035

August 2017

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In August 2017 the specialists of J’son & Partners conducted an analysis of the current state of the emerging market of self-driving (autonomous) vehicles and built a market forecast for the future, in accordance with the scenarios of its development. The company J'son & Partners Consulting presents the results of the study "The world market for self-driving cars in 2020 - 2035".

 

When building the forecasts, the analysts took into account the valuation of such companies as JP Morgan, BI Intelligence, Statista, PWC, HIS, BCG, GSMA, Navigant research, Continental AG, McKinsey, Lux Research, P&C, McKinsey and others.

 

Source: J’son & Partners Consulting, 2017. All vehicles have features of autonomy of class 2 and above.

 

The sales of autonomous cars (hereinafter AC) will increase from 330 thousand cars in 2017 to 30.4 million cars per year by 2035. The market will get the main growth starting from 2025, when the major car manufacturers, especially Chinese, will massively run autonomous cars of class 3. By 2020 the dominant brand in the market will be autonomous cars Tesla. In value terms, annual sales of self-driving cars will grow from $13.65 billion in 2017 to $364,8 billion by 2035.

 

In the regional breakdown the main volume of self-driving cars will fall to share of China, USA and European countries. So, by 2035, the share of sales in China can be up to 33% of the total global sales. This is due to the authorities’ stimulation of the transition of Chinese vehicles to electric traction and high interest in autonomous technologies among the population. The second market of AC will be US with 26% of sales and Europe with 21% of sales in third place.

 

Source: J’son & Partners Consulting, 2017

 

Source: J’son & Partners Consulting, 2017. All vehicles have features of autonomy of class 2 and above.

 

 

Meanwhile in the first years the AC sales share in the sales of all new cars will be low, by 2035 it can reach half of all sales of new cars in the world.

 

Basic conclusions of the study

 

  • Autonomous driving is estimated by the technology sector as the "new big thing" after the smartphone, this thing is designed to solve many current problems of manual control of the vehicle, the main one is safety of driving. There has formed a huge ecosystem of dozens of different companies around self-driving cars and these companies will create a multibillion market for private vehicles.

 

  • Autonomous driving of class 3 and even class 4 promises to become reality in 2020-2021. The majority of foreign automakers and technology companies are working and conducting field tests and they have stated their intentions for that period. Russia has not presented anything practically significant, except for a few exhibition samples and statements from the authorities about the need to achieve a 3% share of the global market, these statements though are not yet backed up by any plans of production companies.

 

  • In the early years self-driving cars will be available for use in limited circumstances and on limited geographical markets, mainly in the well "digitalized" metropolitan areas, as the possibilities of machine intelligence are still limited by certain conditions.

 

  • Mass use of self-driving cars might face, in some countries, serious legal obstacles from regulators that can push back the spread of autonomous driving for up to 2-3 years after the actual readiness of the technology. In addition, the introduction will contain a number of technological, legal, informational and consumer risks. The main markets for accelerated introduction of autonomous driving will be the United States, China and Europe. Russia has not presented a clear vision of the direction in addition to individual applications and the creation of working groups in the framework of the state programs.

 

  • Autonomous driving will have a serious impact on the economies of cities and countries. This impact will be positive (for example, reducing traffic jams and congestion) and negative (decrease of employment in the transport market, reducing the tax base, etc.). Some countries with high unemployment (such as India) have already announced a ban of autonomous driving with the goal of preserving jobs in transportation.

 

  • Stand-alone transport will require high-speed connectivity to mobile networks and generate incredible amounts of data traffic. Modern telecommunications infrastructure needs modernization. The introduction of such technologies may not be possible in Russia in the foreseeable future.

 

  • Russian products in the field of autonomous movement are represented by only a few prototypes and software (e.g. Cognitive Technologies). Russia lags far behind the development of innovations and technologies of autonomous driving from countries such as the US and China, who have concentrated enormous resources in this new area. 

 

 

 

Detailed results of the research are presented in the full version of the report

"Formation Of The World Market Of Self-Driving Cars"

 

 

Contents of the study:

  1. The subject and methodology of the research
  2. Potential consumers of the research
  3. The role of machine learning in the development of the market for automated driving
  4. Definition of autonomy and automation levels
  5. Prerequisites for the formation of the market of autonomous cars

5.2.        High road accident rates due to the human factor.

5.3.        Driving a car takes far too long.

5.4.        Congestion

5.5.        Not everyone can or have the right to drive a car

5.6.        Economic and social costs

5.7.        High transport costs

5.8.        Environmental situation in cities

5.9.        Cost of insurance

  1. Autonomous car system

6.1.        Technologies necessary for ensuring tasks of autonomous driving

6.2.        Embodiments of AC

6.3.        Communication systems in AC

  1. The AC market ecosystem

7.1.        Partnerships

7.2.        Car manufacturers

7.2.1.   Tesla

7.2.2.   Toyota

7.2.3.   General Motors

7.2.4.   Daimler

7.2.5.   Hyundai

7.2.6.   Honda

7.2.7.   Ford

7.2.8.   Volkswagen

7.2.9.   BMW

7.2.10.Volvo

7.2.11.Cognitive Technologies

7.2.12.Manufacturers of industrial vehicles

7.3.        Internet and high-tech corporations

7.3.1.   Google / Waymo

7.3.2.   Baidu

7.3.3.   Apple

7.4.        Service companies

7.5.        Startups

7.5.1.   Uber

7.5.2.   Comma.ai

7.6.        Suppliers of component parts

7.6.1.   NVIDIA

7.6.2.   Intel

7.6.3.   Velodyne LiDAR

7.6.4.   Bosch

7.7.        Russia

  1. Risks and barriers of use of AC

8.1.        Technological risks

8.1.1.   Autonomous driving is while more dangerous than human driving

8.1.2.   Machine intelligence is weak

8.1.3.   Probability of new types of accidents

8.1.4.   Errors in AC code

8.1.5.   Data privacy

8.2.        Regulation of the industry

8.3.        Legal risks

8.3.1.   Responsibility for the consequences of AC accidents

8.3.2.   Ethical attitudes of the AC autopilot

8.4.        Acceptance by consumers

8.4.1.   Distrust of new players in the market of autonomous driving

8.4.2.   Stresses brought by driving with the autopilot

8.5.        Economic risks

8.5.1.   Necessity of modernization of data networks

8.5.2.   Insurance

  1. The future of self-driving cars

9.1.        Baseline scenario

9.2.        Conservative scenario

10. Forecast of the development of the market for autonomous cars

11. Key findings

 

List of figures

Fig. 1. Vector of the modern vehicle automation market - machine learning on the basis of the GPU is becoming a new computer model for the development of AC.

Fig. 2. The estimated number of registered vehicles in the world, 1960-2020 mln units.

Fig. 3. The distance that the vehicles traveled in the United States in comparison with mortality on U.S. roads

Fig. 4. Causes of road accidents in Russia, 2016

Fig. 5. Tesla Autosteer rating

Fig. 6. Journey time, minutes per day, 2006-2014, USA

Fig. 7. What would you do using fully autonomous car?

Fig. 8. Use of the autopilot in vehicles, bln minutes, 2025-2035.

Fig. 9. Assessment of the cost of 1 km drive of different means of transport in the US, $USD

Fig. 10. Global interest to use AC (Robo) taxi

Fig. 11. Car-as-a-service

Fig. 12. The approximate cost of insurance

Fig. 13. Diagram of a self-driving car scheme

Fig. 14. All the equipment of AC

Fig. 15. Geolocation systems

Fig. 16. Layout of equipment for the implementation of autonomous driving on a car

Fig. 17. Scheme of purposes of different AC sensors

Fig. 18. Working zones of different AC sensors

Fig. 19. Two common ways of creating an autonomous vehicle nowadays

Fig. 20. Optimal communication channel and response time when facing different types of obstacles on the road

Fig. 21. Diagram of the main participants of the autonomous driving market

Fig. 22. Outline of some partnerships in the field of autonomous driving

Fig. 23. Other alliances in the field of autonomous driving

Fig. 24. The rating of accidents with use of the autopilot

Fig. 25. Reduction of fuel consumption of Freighliner trucks

Fig. 26. Will consumers buy cars from tech companies?

Fig. 27. Autonomous miles driven per disengagement related to detection of a failure of the autonomous technology

Fig. 28. End-to-End Deep learning platform

Fig. 29. Automated Driving

Fig. 30. Would you allow your child to ride in an AC alone?

Fig. 31. Will the use of AC be interesting for you?

Fig. 32. How likely is it that you will use AC?

Fig. 33. To whom would you entrust the production of AC?

Fig. 34. When are you ready to buy an AC?

Fig. 35. How concerned will you be when driving an AC?

Fig. 36. Proportion of passengers experiencing motion sickness in different types of activity in AC

Fig. 37. Decline in the economy revenues and tax revenues to the budget

Fig. 38. Assessment of the data volume transferred by the autonomous vehicle by data type

Fig. 39. Matrix of the development of the autonomous driving market

Fig. 40. Evolution of the autonomous driving functions

Fig. 41. Roadmap of the implementation of autonomous cars of class 3

Fig. 42. Three scenarios of the AC market development

Fig. 43. When do you expect the commercialization of AC in your city?

(big cities in 7 countries)

Fig. 44. Forecast of sales of autonomous cars in the world, mln units per year

Fig. 45. Forecast of the AC share in sales of new cars in the world, % mln

Fig. 46. Forecast of sales of AC in the world, $bln

Fig. 47. Forecast of the average cost of "autonomy adjustment", $

Fig. 48. Forecast of the AC sales share in 2035 by country, %.

 

List of tables

Table. 1. Levels of driving automation and responsibility of manufacturers to consumers

Table. 2. The total number of accidents in Russia, the number of dead and injured, January - November 2016, the Traffic Police

Table. 3. "Frequency of intervention" in which the driver needs to take control of the vehicle themself (Disengagement events)

 

 

This information note was prepared by the J'son & Partners Consulting. We work hard to provide factual and prognostic data that fully reflect the situation and available at the time of release. J'son & Partners Consulting reserves the right to revise the data after publication of new official information by individual players. 

 

Copyright © 2017, J'son & Partners Consulting. The media can use the text, graphics and data contained in this market review only using a link to the source of information - J'son & Partners Consulting or with an active link to the JSON.TV portal

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In August 2017 the specialists of J’son & Partners conducted an analysis of the current state of the emerging market of self-driving (autonomous) vehicles and built a market forecast for the future, in accordance with the scenarios of its development. The company J'son & Partners Consulting presents the results of the study "The world market for self-driving cars in 2020 - 2035".