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Russian market for WDM equipment, switches, routers and radio relay systems. Forecast until 2028 (updated)

February 2022

Analytical Report (full version)

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Analytical Report (full version)

Russian market for WDM equipment, switches, routers and radio relay systems. Forecast until 2028 (updated)
Russian market for WDM equipment, switches, routers and radio relay systems. Forecast until 2028 (updated)
February 2022

Russian market for WDM equipment, switches, routers and radio relay systems. Forecast until 2028 (updated)

February 2022

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The Russian National Program "Digital Economy of the Russian Federation" contains two basic directions for the development of telecommunications infrastructure – the continuation of efforts to eliminate digital inequality through the development of regional fiber-optic communication lines and access networks using 4G technology (UTSN 2.0) and the creation of 5G mobile networks. This opens up new opportunities for domestic manufacturers of communication equipment, including receiving and transmitting WDM equipment, switches and routers, high-speed radio relay systems, etc. The updated version of the report prepared by the J'son & Partners Consulting is devoted to the analysis of this fast-growing segment in the future until 2028.

 

According to Statista, in 2016-2020, the global telecommunications equipment manufacturing market grew from 291 to 423 billion dollars, with an average annual growth rate of about 10%. High growth rates are associated with the beginning of a new investment cycle due to the development of 5G mobile networks and the need to expand the capacity of fixed communication networks. Nevertheless, many analysts pay attention to the fact that the potential of the 4th generation networks has not yet been fully exhausted and many broadband services can be provided on them.

 

Following in line with global trends, Russian operators have begun preparations for the introduction of 5G mobile networks. Within the framework of the National Program "Digital Economy of the Russian Federation", it is planned to allocate 772 billion rubles for the creation of information infrastructure until 2024. As a result, the telecommunications equipment market has received a serious boost for growth. According to J'son & Partners Consulting, in 2016-2020, the total demand for radio relay systems and transport layer equipment for receiving, transmitting and switching almost tripled and reached more than 30 billion rubles.

 

 

Serious growth rates can be seen in manufacturing of domestic receiving-transmitting and switching equipment for fiber-optic communication lines. At the same time, foreign manufacturers still dominate in the segment of radio relay systems with transmission speed rates measured in gigabits.

 

According to J'son & Partners Consulting, the measures taken by the government in the field of import substitution have been necessary, but clearly insufficient. The problems faced by domestic manufacturers are related to the lack of Russian electronic and optoelectronic components that determine the key competitive advantages of telecommunications equipment. Currently, the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Russia is looking for new approaches to solving this problem, according to CNews, by 2025, the Ministry plans to increase sales of Russian communications equipment to 44% of its current total sales in the country.

 

The methodology used in the new research by J'son & Partners Consulting was based on the company’s previous research dedicated to the Russian telecommunications and IT equipment market, technical and economic analysis of the state and production experience of domestic manufacturers of equipment for fiber-optic and radio relay communication lines, in-depth analysis of customs statistics on the nomenclature and suppliers of imported equipment, analysis of purchases of the equipment by public authorities and companies with state participation, and also taking into account the existing measures taken within the framework of the implementation of the state program for the development of the digital economy in the Russian Federation.

 

In this study, the term "main types of telecommunications equipment" refers to the following 3 types of equipment that have good perspectives for creating different level transport communication networks:

 

1. Receiving and transmitting equipment for fiber-optic communication lines with transmission speeds up to Nx100 Gbit/s;

2. Switches, routers, multiplexers for managing data flows with speeds up to Nx100 Gbit/s;

3. Access level radio relay equipment with transmission speeds up to 10 Gbit/s.

 

The term “critical information infrastructure” refers to equipment purchased for the needs of public authorities, including government agencies and organizations, and for large industrial enterprises, as a rule, with a significant share of state participation. Such infrastructure has high security requirements and it is a key segment for import substitution of used telecommunications equipment.

 

When analyzing the purchases of equipment for creating critical infrastructure in 2016-2019, the volume of consumption of each type of equipment in monetary terms is segmented according to the following criteria:

 

1. For public authorities:

• federal level;

• regional level;

• municipal level.

 

2. For big corporations:

• IT and telecom;

• extractive industry;

• manufacturing;

• energy;

• resource supply (oil, gas, electricity, water);

• finance;

• transport;

• construction;

• various branches of science;

• other.

 

When analyzing cost indicators for such equipment and the market as a whole, the authors took into account manufacturer's prices (warehouse prices, customs prices), that is, for example, when analyzing procurement tenders, they did not calculate the cost of design and survey, construction and installation and commissioning works, logistics costs, training of customer personnel, equipment maintenance services under life cycle contracts, etc. In addition, costs of software purchased separately under licenses or subscriptions were also excluded. Thus, the premium to the price of integrators, distributors, dealers was not considered, if possible.

 

 

 

  

 

Detailed results of the study presented in the full version of the report:

 

“Prospects of the Russian telecommunications equipment market for fiber-optic communication lines and radio relay systems until 2028”

 

Contents

 

1.Brief summary

 


2.Introduction. General dynamics of the global and Russian telecommunications equipment market and global trends in technological development of telecommunications equipment

 

3.Assessment of demand for the main types of telecommunications equipment by type in 2016-2020 in Russia

 


3.1.Dynamics of total demand for equipment in monetary and physical terms
3.2.Assessment of the dynamics of demand for domestic and imported equipment in monetary and physical terms
3.3.Assessment of the total demand for equipment used for creating critical information infrastructure in monetary terms
3.4.Assessment of the dynamics of demand for equipment used for creating critical information infrastructure by public authorities, total and broken down by criteria of significance (federal, regional, municipal) in monetary terms
3.5. Assessment of the dynamics of demand for equipment used for creating critical information infrastructure in the segment of large corporate consumers in total and by industry breakdown in monetary terms
3.6.List of the largest consumers of equipment used for creating critical information infrastructure and their integral volume of purchases in monetary terms for 2016-2020

 

4.Domestic manufacturers of telecommunications equipment and the level of technical complexity of their products by type
4.1.Rating of the main domestic manufacturers by revenue in 2016-2019
4.2.Brief profiles of the main manufacturers of domestic equipment
4.2.1.Receiving and transmitting equipment manufacturers
4.2.1.1.Т8
4.2.1.2.Supertel
4.2.1.3.Rotek
4.2.1.4.Datatel
4.2.1.5.Morion
4.2.1.6.FSUE EZAN
4.2.1.7.IRE-Polus
4.2.1.8.Q-Tech
4.2.1.9.JSC “Reko-Vek”
4.2.2.Switching Equipment Manufacturers
4.2.2.1.Norsi-Trans
4.2.2.2.RDP.RU
4.2.2.3.Eltex
4.2.2.4.Bulat
4.2.2.5.Information technology and communication
4.2.2.6.Jabil
4.2.2.7.Polygon
4.2.2.8.2 Test (Alcor Communication)
4.2.2.9.Zelax
4.2.2.10.NPP Mayak
4.2.2.11.Pulsar-Telecom
4.2.2.12.Spetssvyazstroy
4.2.2.13.Rusteletech
4.2.2.14.Symanitron
4.2.3.Radio relay equipment manufacturers
4.2.3.1.Mikran
4.2.3.2.Infinet
4.2.3.3.Imaklik Service
4.2.3.4.Microwave electronics
4.2.3.5.Microlink Communication
4.2.3.6.DOK

 

5.Assessment of the degree of dependence of the Russian telecommunications equipment market on foreign equipment supply by type
5.1.Assessment of the degree of dependence on the import of equipment used for creating and modernizing critical information infrastructure
5.2.Largest foreign equipment suppliers

 

6.Forecast of the Russian equipment market development by type in monetary and physical terms (basic and positive scenarios) until 2028

 

This report contains 95 pages of text, including 22 figures and 31 tables.

 

List of figures

 


Fig. 1. Total dynamics of telecommunications services revenues in the world in 2016-2019, billion dollars
Fig. 2. The share of the world's largest manufacturers in the telecommunications equipment market by revenue in 2014-2020, %
Fig. 3. Comparison of the total network bandwidth of telecommunications operators and data centers, broken down by data transfer rate in the world, Pbit/s
Fig. 4. Technological advances and the transition to powerful transmission systems in fiber-optic networks
Fig. 5. Roadmap for the development of telecommunications equipment transmission technologies
Fig. 6. The advantage of fully integrated solutions over traditional methods of connecting switches
Fig. 7. Increase in switching speed in 2010-2022, Tbit/s
Fig. 8. Integrated design and its key components
Fig. 9. An experimental sample of a switch with a total speed of 6 Tbit/s from Ranovus
Fig. 10. Dynamics and structure of sales of I/O devices by transmission speed in 2014-2025, million pcs
Fig. 11. Structure of DATAIX data center ports by transmission speeds in natural terms in 2018 and 2020.
Fig. 12. Growth rates of demand for 100 Gbit/s ports in DATAIX data centers in 2016-2020, pcs
Fig. 13. Global distribution of data centers by their area
Fig. 14. Dynamics of the demand structure of optical transceivers by speed in Russia in 2015-2025
Fig. 15. Dependence of attenuation in the atmosphere on the frequency of the radio signal
Fig. 16. The total telecommunications equipment market volume considered in monetary terms in 2016-2020, billion rubles.
Fig. 17. The share of the cost of software licenses relative to the cost of the WDM equipment itself, depending on its technical complexity (max. transmission rates), %
Fig. 18. Dynamics of total consumption of telecommunications equipment of the considered types of domestic and foreign manufacturing in monetary terms in 2016-2020, billion rubles.
Fig. 19. Assessment of the share of foreign suppliers of equipment for fiber-optic communication lines by imports volume in monetary terms, %
Fig. 20. Assessment of the share of foreign suppliers of radio relay equipment by imports volume in monetary terms, %
Fig. 21. Forecast of growth in the number of base stations of various generations of mobile communications in 2017-2027, thousand pcs
Fig. 22. Comparison of the dynamics of the basic and positive scenarios for the total volume of consumption of the considered radio-electronic types of equipment until 2028, billion rubles.

 

List of tables

 

Table 1. Total volume of the global telecommunications equipment market in 2016-2020, billion dollars
Table 2. Total volume of the Russian telecommunications equipment market in 2016-2020, billion rubles
Table 3. Typical characteristics of international data centers for the use of telecommunications equipment
Table 4. Dynamics of the telecommunications equipment market in monetary terms in 2016-2020, billion rubles
Table 5. Assessment of the dynamics of the telecommunications equipment market in natural terms in 2016-2020, pcs
Table 6. Assessment of the dynamics of average market prices for telecommunications equipment in natural terms in 2016-2020, pcs
Table 7. Assessment of the share of the cost of software and equipment technical support services supplied separately
Table 8. Statistical indicators of the development of fixed and mobile networks in Russia
Table 9. Dynamics of demand for domestic telecommunications equipment by type in monetary terms in 2016-2020, billion rubles.
Table 10. Dynamics of demand for foreign telecommunications equipment by type in monetary terms in 2016-2020, billion rubles.
Table 11. Assessment of the dynamics of demand for domestic telecommunications equipment by type in natural terms in 2016-2020, pcs.
Table 12. Assessment of the dynamics of demand for foreign telecommunications equipment by type in natural terms in 2016-2020, pcs.
Table 13. Dynamics of demand for the considered telecommunications equipment used for creating and modernizing critical information infrastructure, by type in monetary terms in 2016-2020, billion rubles.
Table 14. Dynamics of the share of demand for telecommunications equipment used for creating and modernizing critical information infrastructure to the total market volume by its types in monetary terms in 2016-2020, billion rubles.
Table 15. Volume of purchases of the considered types of telecommunications equipment used for creating and modernizing critical information infrastructure by public authorities, broken down by levels of criticality in monetary terms, billion rubles.
Table 16. Volume of purchases of the considered types of telecommunications equipment used for creating and modernizing critical information infrastructure in the segment of large corporate consumers in monetary terms, billion rubles.
Table 17. Largest consumers of transport transmitting and receiving equipment for fiber-optic communication line used for creating and modernizing critical information infrastructure, and overall procurement volume in monetary terms for 2015–2020 (10 months).
Table 18. The largest consumers of switching equipment used for creating and modernizing critical information infrastructure, and overall procurement volume in money terms for 2015–2020 (10 months).
Table 19. Largest consumers of radio relay equipment used for creating and modernizing critical information infrastructure, and their integral volume of purchases in monetary terms for 2015-2020 (for 10 months).
Table 20. Russian manufacturers of receiving and transmitting equipment for fiber-optic communication lines and assessment of the level of their products
Table 21. Russian manufacturers of switching equipment and assessment of the level of their products
Table 22. Russian manufacturers of radio relay equipment and assessment of the level of their products
Table 23. Rating of Russian manufacturers of telecommunications equipment by total revenue in 2016-2020, mln rubles.
Table 24. The degree of dependence of Russia on the import of telecommunications equipment by its main types (share of imports), %
Table 25. Assessment of the total need for replacement of fiber-optic cables with a service life of more than 20 years, accumulated total in 2020-2030, km
Table 26. Assessment of the total need for replacement of fiber-optic cables with a service life of more than 20 years, broken down by year in 2020-2030, km per year
Table 27. Positive scenario: dynamics of consumption of the considered types of equipment in monetary terms in 2020-2028, billion rubles.
Table 28. Positive scenario: assessment of the dynamics of consumption of the considered types of equipment in natural terms in 2020 - 2028, pcs.
Table 29. Basic scenario: dynamics of consumption of the considered types of equipment in monetary terms in 2020-2028, billion rubles.
Table 30. Basic scenario: assessment of the dynamics of consumption of the considered types of equipment in natural terms in 2020-2028, pcs.
Table 31. Assessment of the dynamics of average prices for the types of equipment in question in 2020-2028, rubles/piece.

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